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The US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has released a new report warning that China's rapidly modernizing military forces pose a major security threat to Asia.
Military Modernization
The 140-page report, titled "China's Military Power: Modernizing the Force to Fight and Win," released Tuesday. He notes that tensions over Taiwan's status have been a major factor in China's heavy investment in its military in recent years.
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"Beijing's long-standing interest in finally forcing Taiwan's reunification with the mainland and thwarting any attempt by Taiwan to declare independence has been a primary driver of China's military modernization," writes DIA Director Robert Ashley.
"China is building a powerful, lethal force in the air, sea, space and information fields that will enable China to impose its will on the region. As it continues to grow stronger and more assertive, our nation's leaders will confront China. Global Interactions insists on being louder, perhaps even against US interests.”
The report suggests that China's fear that foreign powers might try to intervene in an operation to seize Taiwan has led it to "develop a range of systems to deter and deny foreign regional power projection," such as US carrier strike groups.
China has tripled its military spending since 2002, reaching $200 billion last year, the report said. That's still significantly less than the US's $700 billion military budget, but the DIA noted that Beijing has committed less to funding research and development because it has bought or stolen the best technology developed in other countries.
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"China has shifted funds and efforts to acquire the technology by any means necessary," the report said. "Local laws forced foreign partners in China-based joint ventures to release their technology to the lucrative Chinese market, and China used other methods to secure the necessary technology and expertise," including intellectual property theft.
Ashley lists China's most powerful weapons, some of which are among the most advanced in the world. Chinese submarines, "major surface combat ships" and anti-aircraft and anti-aircraft missiles all pose a threat to adversaries, he explained.
Beijing's anti-ship missile -- "the world's first road-mobile, anti-ship ballistic missile," according to the DIA report -- is of particular concern to US forces, given the importance of US aircraft carriers to power projection in East Asia.
"Chinese leaders hope that having these military capabilities will deter Taiwan's pro-independence activities or, failing that, allow tailored military options and third-party military intervention against Taiwan," the report said.
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Beijing believes that Taiwan should be part of a unified China. Under its "One China" policy, the ruling Communist Party has always said it wants to bring Taiwan under its control through diplomacy or force.
The US has historically supported Taiwan independence with arms sales and military deployments, making it a flashpoint in Washington-Beijing relations.
In a meeting with the chief of naval operations, US Admiral John Richardson, on Monday, Chinese senior general Li Sucheng warned that China will not allow outside interference in its relations with Taiwan.
"If anyone tries to separate Taiwan from China, the Chinese military will do everything to protect national reunification, national sovereignty and territorial integrity," Li said.
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Chinese soldiers ride in tanks as they march past Tiananmen Square and the Forbidden City during a military parade on September 3, 2015 in Beijing. Kevin Frayer/Getty Images Soldiers of the Chinese People's Liberation Army during a military parade exercise, Beijing, September 1, 2015.
The unprecedented strengthening of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) over the past 20 years has pushed China's military modernization to the forefront of discussion among US policymakers. We asked senior political scientists Eric Heginbotham and Michael Chase to discuss their recent assessments of China's military modernization and its implications for US interests in Asia. Heginbotham is the lead author
The United States and China have strong economic and diplomatic ties. Why care about relative military capabilities?
Hegginbotham: The United States and China do cooperate in many areas, and both countries want to create a positive political agenda with each other. The United States has enormous economic and strategic interests in the continued stability of Asia, and it is committed to helping friends and allies maintain that stability. But we cannot take stability for granted. Maintaining the balance of military forces and correct military posture are essential ingredients of conflict prevention. To be clear, we do not expect or anticipate a conflict between the US and China, but it is important to understand how the balance of power may shift.
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Hegginbotham: The short answer is that China's economic growth has made it possible to spend more on defense, and the balance of power has shifted accordingly. After the 1996 Taiwan Strait crisis, China began to invest heavily in its defense capabilities. Since then, defense spending has risen about 11 percent a year, adjusted for inflation. Much of this modernization has focused on developing air and naval forces, conventionally armed ballistic missiles, and counterspace and cyber capabilities. The recently announced reductions in ground troop numbers are very much in line with this focus.
Persecution: In the 1980s and 1990s, the PLA suffered from outdated equipment and poorly trained personnel, as well as the distraction and corruption associated with engaging in various commercial activities. China has responded by pouring money into and reforming its military. The PLA has made impressive progress in a relatively short period of time and is clearly becoming a more professional and capable fighting force.
The United States has also invested heavily in its military capabilities. Worried that China might catch up?
Heginbotham: No. On a system-for-system or individual service member level, China is not even close to the United States. But the challenge to US defense capabilities in Asia, especially in a conflict close to the mainland like Taiwan, does not require a complete catch-up. China has invested in areas that use its geographic advantage in the event of conflict.
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Prosecution: If the Chinese Communist Party leadership orders it, the PLA can increasingly threaten its neighbors and threaten US bases and other high-value assets. China's capabilities to deter or, if necessary, retaliate against U.S. military intervention in the Asia-Pacific region, including systems designed to compromise U.S. military bases, aircraft carriers, space systems, and computer networks, have become a cause for greater concern. . Happens among US security analysts.
Haginbotham: Looking at potential conflict scenarios and trends over time, we see that China has made relative gains in being able to challenge US air superiority, threaten and threaten US bases. All these developments make it difficult for the US to protect its interests closer to the Chinese mainland. China's ability to project power to more distant locations is limited, but its reach is growing. If the US and China remain on their current trajectories, US dominance in Asia will gradually shrink.
Tracking: Our team relied heavily on Chinese publications such as defense white papers, books on military strategy and operations, and PLA press articles to look at PLA vulnerabilities from a Chinese perspective. We found that the PLA still suffers from several serious weaknesses. The first is institutional: the PLA faces shortcomings from outdated command structures, poor personnel quality, and corruption. The second focus is on combat capabilities, including transportation weaknesses, inadequate strategic aircraft capabilities, limited numbers of special operations aircraft, and deficiencies in air defense and anti-submarine warfare. These weaknesses increase the risk that the PLA will be unable to carry out some of the missions that Chinese Communist Party leaders may assign, but the potential impact varies by mission.
Heginbotham: Right. Many of the material weaknesses that Mike mentions have a particularly large impact on the PLA's ability to conduct missions or operations further away from the Chinese mainland, such as the Spratly Islands. Of course, the United States did not stand either. The United States maintains a technological advantage in submarine warfare. In a long-range air strike, the combination of a new generation of US air-launched cruise missiles and new stealth capabilities will allow the US to keep Chinese targets at risk despite improved air defense capabilities.
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Chase: The Chinese are well aware of these weaknesses and are working hard to correct them. The PLA is already addressing institutional issues such as corruption and training gaps. Over the next 10 years, the PLA is expected to focus on upgrading its weapons systems and equipment, particularly in priority areas such as naval, air, missile and space capabilities. All these developments are expected to improve the PLA's overall combat capabilities. This is one reason why it is so important for US policymakers to understand the PLA's current shortcomings – they indicate where China has room.
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